Missouri Valley Standings Update

Things got even more interesting after Northern Iowa blew a game at home to Drake and Indiana State stole a road win at the once invincible SIU Arena.

So, here's how we stand after 2/18:

			Conference		Tiebreaker Pts.
		Place	Wins	Losses	Max.	Earned
Northern Iowa		1	12	4	173	107 (-1)
Creighton		1	12	4	173	96 (+7)
Illinois State		3	11	5	179	90 (+10)
Bradley		4	9	7	183	59 (-2)
Evansville		5	7	9	191	42 (+5)
Wichita State		5	7	9	191	75 (+3)
Drake		5	7	9	191	70 (+18)
Southern Ill.		8	6	10	201	66 (+7)
Indiana State		8	6	10	201	40 (-1)
Missouri State		10	3	13	207	27 (+1)

The Drake win moves them into a tie with Wichita State and Evansville for fifth place in the Valley. But, the Bulldogs would still be in the play-in game right now as they would lose the mini-round robin tiebreaker between the three teams. Evansville is 3-1, Wichita State is 2-2 and Drake is 1-3 versus one another.

Now of course, if Drake falls out of a tie, then Wichita State will move ahead of Evansville, as the Shockers have a lot more of tiebreaker points.

For those of you who hope Bradley could somehow move up to third with two wins and two Illinois State losses, don't count on it. The Braves will only make up approximately 20 points on Illinois State with two wins, not enough to secure the third seed, even as the point values get shifted slightly in the last week.

On the positive side, Wichita State's loss tonight to Illinois State secures Bradley a spot in Friday's games, no matter what happens. In the unlikely event there is a 4-way tie for fourth place, Wichita State's two wins against the other three teams (Bradley, Drake, Evansville) would be the worst total and would push the Shockers into the play-in game.

At the top of the Valley, things could get extremely interesting, especially since Illinois State has games against both Northern Iowa and Creighton remaining. If the Redbirds could find a way to win both, they'd almost surely have the most tiebreaker points (and would hold the head-to-head advantage over Creighton) and take the top seed.

Of course, if Northern Iowa and Creighton tie, then the Panthers will finish first. As the two are in almost a dead heat in playoff points, you need to look at their remaining games. They both have a common opponent of Illinois State. As long as both have the same result, then those points are a wash. But, Creighton has lowly Missouri State left, while Northern Iowa still has a game against Evansville, which will have a much higher point value.

But, so much is still left to be determined. With the large amount of accumulated points that Indiana State has, the Sycamores could easily get out of the play-in game if they could pull off a road upset over Wichita State next week. Even SIU, who may be struggling more than any other Valley team (lost 5 of 6) could still move up, with games against Drake and Wichita State.

The wild and crazy Valley race continues next week after BracketBuster weekend...

MVC tiebreaker update

Last year I took the time to create a spreadsheet that would calculate the MVC tiebreaker procedures. Even to this day, it's a work in progress. The challenging part about the system is that depending on every game, the numbers change. So, the spreadsheet has to be set up to make that fluid.

So, here's the current tiebreaker breakdown as I have everything calculated:

			Conference		Tiebreaker Pts.
		Place	Wins	Losses	Max.	Earned
Northern Iowa		1	12	3	171	108
Creighton		2	11	4	175	96
Illinois State		3	10	5	179	80
Bradley		4	8	7	183	61
Wichita State		5	7	8	189	72
Evansville		5	7	8	189	37
Drake		7	6	9	197	52
Southern Ill.		7	6	9	197	41
Indiana State		9	5	10	203	59
Missouri State		10	3	12	207	26

(Wichita State would be the 5 seed right now, as it split with Evansville and has a sizable margin in tiebreaker points. Drake has won the only game between it and the Salukis and also is the leader in tiebreaker points. An SIU win over Drake could make it very interesting.)

Now, here's a team-by-team breakdown. Please note the semantics here. If the season ended today, Wichita State and Evansville would both be considered in a tie for fifth place. But all we're looking at now is the possibility of seeding for Arch Madness in St. Louis.

First let's look at who holds head-to-head tiebreakers:

Northern Iowa - Bradley, Missouri State, Southern Illinois

Creighton - Bradley, Indiana State, Southern Illinois

Illinois State - Evansville, Missouri State, Southern Illinois

Bradley - Indiana State, Wichita State

Wichita State - None

Evansville - Drake, Indiana State

Drake - None

Southern Illinois - Missouri State

Indiana State - Illinois State

Missouri State - None

Bradley's two wins over the Shockers will almost surely keep the Braves ahead, barring a very poor finish from the Bradley against some weak opponents. Evansville's sweep of Drake should prevent the Aces from being in the play-in game.

Some important scenarios obviously haven't been determined yet. Illinois State leads its series with Creighton 1-0. The Redbirds trail the series with Northern Iowa but Illinois State has its chance against UNI in Normal next week. Southern Illinois will likely have a lot to do with who is in the play-in game, as it still has games against Drake and Wichita State remaining.

Predicted finish as of 12/15 (assuming generally that home teams will win in close matchups):

1. Creighton 14-4 (W vs. Evansville, W @ Missouri State, W vs. Illinois State / Would likely lead in tiebreaker points over UNI if they win out)

2. Northern Iowa 14-4 (W vs. Drake, L @ Illinois State, W vs. Evansville)

3. Illinois State 12-6 (W vs. Wichita State, W v. Northern Iowa, L @ Creighton)

4. Bradley 10-8 (W vs. Missouri State, L @ Evansville, W vs. Drake)

5. Wichita State 9-9 (L @ Illinois State, W vs. Indiana State, W @ Southern Illinois - just have a feeling)

6. Evansville 8-10 (L @ Creighton, W vs. Bradley, L @ Northern Iowa)

7. Drake 7-11 (Will edge SIU due to "prospective" head-to-head sweep / L @ Northern Iowa, W vs. Southern Illinois, L @ Bradley)

8. Southern Illinois 7-11 (W vs. Indiana State, L @ Drake, L vs. Wichita State)

9. Indiana State 6-12 (L @ Southern Illinois, L @ Wichita State, W vs. Missouri State)

10. Missouri State 3-15 (L @ Bradley, L vs. Creighton, L @ Indiana State)

But as any Valley fan knows, things could change in a heartbeat. Illinois State could make a run for the title still.

Game Twenty-Four Recap: Bradley @ Creighton

65	79

Games like these are when Bradley really misses players like Andrew Warren and Jeremy Crouch.

Creighton proved why its a perennial Missouri Valley Conference powerhouse, outlasting a gutsy performance by the Braves 79-65. The Bluejays (20-6, 10-4) kept pace with Northern Iowa, who beat Southern Illinois easily tonight, holding onto second place in the Valley, two games back. Bradley (13-12, 7-7) has lost seven of 10 conference games now after starting 4-0 in league play.

Unlike the flat performance at Drake, Bradley battled hard in an arena (Qwest Center) that the team has never won. After allowing a 3-pointer to start the game by guard Dodie Dunson, Creighton ran eight straight points on the Braves. For a long time, the game simply looked out of reach.

The Bluejays always had an answer to any run the Braves made. Two free throws by forward/center Sam Singh trimmed the Creighton lead to 25-23 with 5:50 left in the first half. But a bad four possessions (two turnovers by forward Theron Wilson, two tough shots made by Booker Woodfox) quickly extended the lead back to six, 29-23.

Bradley looked as if it would surely trail going into the half, but a half court buzzer beater by guard Sam Maniscalco gave Bradley its first lead going into halftime, 39-37. Creighton had played a really sloppy half and still only trailed by two. With how inconsistent Bradley's shooting has been all season, it would be hard to imagine how the team could put up another big scoring half.

And unfortunately for the Braves, they didn't. Bradley could have folded, falling behind 55-47 in the midst of an 8-0 Creighton run. Instead, the team stormed back, and went on a 10-0 run of its own.

But the offense was nonexistent for the final nine minutes and the Bluejays finished the game scoring 24 of the final 32 points. Not only were the Braves not making shots, but they also were turning the ball over too much. Just like at Drake, Bradley finished with 19 turnovers.

Maybe living with the center David Collins, whose soft play can often be brought into question, is rubbing off on Wilson. His overall stat line doesn't look bad on paper (15 points, 11 rebounds), but he also made numerous bonehead mistakes and just hasn't been himself since defenses have committed to shutting him down. He's really going to need to get it together and start playing like the leader he showed to be earlier in the season.

Guard Chris Roberts, who can be frustratingly inconsistent, had one of his good nights. He had 11 points, three rebounds, a steal and a block — filling up the stat sheet as he generally does during his positive games. If only he could put together games like this nightly, he'd start every game.

Maniscalco also finished in double figures with 13. But as much as Sam can be praised for his heart, determination and overall basketball IQ, even he made some silly turnovers that helped seal Bradley's fate.

Without Warren and Will Egolf, this team just isn't that great. If the team had a finisher, like Creighton has P'Allen Stinnett and Woodfox, then a few of these close games would have likely swung in Bradley's favor. Fortunate for them, as the rest of the league isn't that impressive either. This has helped the team stay afloat through the last difficult part of the schedule.

Up next:

Realistically, Bradley will finish somewhere between fourth and sixth once conference play ends. Which, considering what was lost, isn't the worst end result to the season. If the Braves are to assure fourth place (or attempt an outside chance at third), the winning must start again Saturday. Evansville comes to Peoria, who shares fourth place currently with Bradley.

Teams as average as Evansville must be beaten at home. Expect Bradley to finish the season strong, with all five games (two with Evansville, one with both Missouri State and Drake and the Bracketbuster at Loyola) being winnable. As big of a rut as this team has been in closing out games, the talent level for the Braves still is superior to all of the remaining opponents.

Game Twenty-Three Recap: Bradley @ Drake

54	68

For the people who regularly check my site, you might be wondering why you don't see a recap from the Bradley-Drake game.

Well, unfortunately this game had the unbeatable combination of being played while I was unable to watch the game and not archived on BUBraves.tv. I wasn't even aware (until after the fact) that this was an MVC-TV game, so it wouldn't be streamed online. My oversight cost me an opportunity to see the Braves fall bitterly to defeat in Des Moines, IA.

Reading through the recaps and message board posts though, one thing was pretty clear - Bradley played poorly. This wasn't a Drake team that just came out and took it to the Braves. And after taking care of the ball well for a nice stretch, Bradley turned it over 19 times, which is never a recipe for success.

With a big game tonight at Creighton, Bradley had better be ready to play against a much better Bluejay team. Otherwise the Braves' slide will continue and the team will really be muddled in the middle the pack in the Valley.

Game Twenty-Three Recap: Northern Iowa @ Bradley

61	58

Northern Iowa stunned Bradley 61-58 with five 3-pointers in the last 3:21 of the game to win its seventh straight road game and 11th overall.

The Panthers (17-6, 11-1) trailed 58-52 after guard Sam Maniscalco made two free throws with 1:38 to play. But Northern Iowa would get a trey in each of its last three possessions, the final one coming from Johnny Moran with five seconds left in the game.

The shocking finish veils a truly spirited effort from Bradley (13-10, 7-5). The host team trailed for nearly 28 minutes until a three point play by Maniscalco gave the Braves its first lead at 39-38. Maniscalco finished with a game high 19 points, scoring a number of his baskets in the first half when Bradley was having some trouble scoring.

Forward Theron Wilson also played well while battling foul trouble the entire game (13 points, five rebounds). But it was the post players for the Braves who really made some key contributions. Center David Collins finally showed some aggressiveness and ended up with 11 points, six rebounds and two dunks (both on plays where he might ordinarily try to lay it up).

Forward/center Sam Singh also chipped in six points. Ordinarily when the Braves get 17 from their post players, they win.

But, as is with any loss, there were also negatives. Northern Iowa center Jordan Eglseder was simply unstoppable in the first half, scoring all 12 of his points before halftime. Neither Collins or Singh seemed to pose much of a challenge and never received help from the rest of the Bradley defense who was overly concerned with shutting down the Panther 3-point attack.

The Braves tried to adjust during the break, focusing more attention on Eglseder. Credit Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobsen for shifting his offensive focus to forward Adam Koch. The senior hit all 10 of his free throw attempts in the game and helped force Bradley into bad foul trouble.

That's a big reason why Northern Iowa keeps winning. The Panthers have so many different options that whoever seems to be able to exploit a mismatch gets the ball. Point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe took the reigns from Koch as the second half progressed, beating just about any Bradley defender who was matched up with him.

As the Braves defense had to start helping on Ahelegbe's drives to the hoop, this opened up a few layups for Lucas O'Rear as well as the 3-point barrage to finish the game. Ahelegbe had an assist on five of the last seven baskets for the Panthers.

While Bradley certainly could have defended better in the last few possessions of the game, give a ton of credit to the Panthers. Some of these makes were closely guarded and the Braves couldn't do much about it. Northern Iowa doesn't go 7-0 in league road games without making some very difficult shots.

Bradley's offensive execution didn't get it done either in the final moments. Guard Dodie Dunson, who had one of his worst games in awhile (2 points, 1-7 shooting), committed a bad turnover by dribbling the ball off of his foot. Maniscalco had another chance to make a game winning shot, but missed a layup in the waning moments for the second straight game.

Up next:

Another close game goes against the Braves and now they are falling back to the pack in the conference. Bradley temporarily sits in fourth place with all other teams in action tomorrow and faces two tough road games coming up (at Drake, at Creighton).

After such a promising start, the Braves are in danger of coming back to .500 if the road swing doesn't go well. The injuries to Andrew Warren and Will Egolf seem to be catching up with Bradley as the conference season goes on. The depth simply isn't as good as the top teams in the conference.

Though they could certainly finish higher, I think a 4th-6th place finish will be where the Braves end February. Drake is one of the teams battling for position and Bradley needs this next game even more than the Northern Iowa game (who weren't likely to be caught, even with a Bradley win).

Bradley @ Drake, 7:05 p.m., Sat. 2/7

(Interesting side note: As I wrote this story, I had no prior knowledge of what headline the PJ Star would use for their story. Yet, we both came out with "stunned" as the verb describing this one. I guess that one really sums up this game.)