February 26, 2009

Game Twenty-Nine Recap: Bradley @ Evansville

BradleyEvansville

49

56

Individual games can be a microcosm of a season.

Wednesday night felt like just that as the up-and-down Braves fell on the road to Evansville (17-11, 8-9) by a score of 56-49. Bradley (16-13, 9-8) didn't play well and again showed its vulnerability when the team shoots poorly overall and takes too many 3-point shots.

The Braves made 6-of-24 from behind the arc, only 25 percent. Bradley hasn't shot that many threes in any conference game this season, and it was the most since the dismal performance at Milwaukee on Dec. 20 (6-of-27, 22 percent).

Compare the results in wins versus losses and the discrepancy is even more evident. In nine conference wins, Bradley has made 51-of-130 attempts from the 3-point line, good for 39 percent. In the eight losses, the Braves have not only shot a much lower percentage (30 percent) but they've also taken 15 more shots (145) in one less game. This team simply can't keep trying long range shots at the rate of previous teams.

As for this particular game, Evansville showed the emotion expected on senior night. After a dunk by Bradley center David Collins, the Purple Aces went on 8-2 run to pull ahead 17-7. Most of the half was pretty sloppy overall and Evansville maintained its 10-point lead going into halftime at 30-20.

The Braves never could put together enough scores in a row to close the lead within four points until late in the second half. Often this was attributable to lax defensive possessions. Though the overall defensive effort looked good on paper (Evansville shot only 40 percent from the floor), too many times the Braves were beaten off the dribble or were too slow to rotate. This led to numerous layups and free throw opportunities by the Purple Aces.

The game may have been more one-sided if Evansville had hit more than 15-of-24 free throws (62.5 percent). And at this point, it almost goes without saying that a Jim Les-coached team would give 100 percent effort. That certainly wasn't in question tonight, but without a go-to scorer, Bradley couldn't make enough shots to win.

Collins needs to be singled out for Bradley. He led the Braves in scoring for the first time this season with 10 points. Anyone who knows this team should understand though, that if Collins is the high-point man, Bradley is probably going to lose the game.

That shouldn't take away from Collins' game. He showed a tenacity that fans have rarely seen from him in road games this season. Collins grabbed 10 rebounds and was credited with five blocks (though it surely looked like 6 or 7 when watching).

Another thing to like about Collins tonight is that he generally made good decisions with the ball. When he had man-to-man coverage, he took the ball to the basket aggressively. But when Evansville doubled down on him, Collins found the open man — helping contribute to his four assists.

Nobody else really stepped up for Bradley. Guard Sam Maniscalco and forward Theron Wilson have generally been the guys to do it, but they finished with just nine and six points respectively.

The Braves were also at a disadvantage as guard Dodie Dunson played the whole game with a heavily wrapped right hand. The injury greatly affected his ability to make any offensive contribution, therefore putting more pressure on Maniscalco and Wilson.

Jason Holsinger had a great game for Evansville on his senior night. The sharpshooting guard led all scorers with 19 points.

Next game:

As noted in my post about the MVC standings, Bradley needs to forget about this loss quickly. The Braves will likely finish 4th in conference, but they need some momentum going into the conference tournament in St. Louis.

Drake comes to Peoria for the final game of the regular season after a heartbreaking home loss to Southern Illinois tonight. Bradley definitely appears to be the better team, but that doesn't mean much in the Valley this year. The Braves put up a terrible performance Feb. 7 in Des Moines, falling to the Bulldogs 68-54.

A win secures the 4th seed in the conference tournament. But it's hard to guess who Bradley will play until all games are complete.

Next game: Drake @ Bradley, Sat. 2/28, 7:05 p.m.

February 25, 2009

Missouri Valley Picture Gets Clearer

Northern Iowa's big win at Illinois State assures the Panthers of finishing in the top two in the Valley, while ISU has locked up the third seed in the tournament.

Let's check out the full standings after 17 of 18 league games:




Conference Tiebreaker Pts.


Place Wins Losses Max. Earned
Northern Iowa
1 13 4
173
125 (+18)
Creighton
1
13 4 173
107 (+11)
Illinois State
3 11 6
179 91 (+1)
Bradley
4 9
8
183 62 (+3)
Wichita State

5 8
9
189 75 (0)
Evansville

5 8
9
189 50 (+8)
Drake
7
7
10
197 72 (+2)
Southern Ill.
7
7
10
197
48 (+8)
Indiana State
9
6
11 201 65 (-1)
Missouri State
10 3 14 207 26 (-1)

Just like last time, I'll remind those who read breakdown that we're merely talking about tournament seeding. If Northern Iowa and Creighton both win Saturday, they'd be crowned conference co-champions. But UNI would be the top seed.

The Panthers split with Creighton, so they would win any tie by virtue of an insurmountable advantage in tiebreaker points. Even with a Creighton win over Illinois State this weekend, it would not be enough to catch UNI.

So with things pretty simple at the top, it's still very foggy in the middle of the Valley. Bradley's disappointing performance at Evansville drops the Braves much closer to the pack. A win would have clinched the 4th seed, but now Saturday's home finale against Drake has even greater importance than just senior night.

Bradley could make it very simple and just win at home, which would lock up the 4th seed. The Braves might be able to back into that same seed by Wichita State (at Southern Illinois) and Evansville (at Northern Iowa) both losing, which is very plausible.

If we have some ties, here's how it will look:

    -If Bradley ties Wichita State at 9-9, then the Braves take the 4th seed (head-to-head, 2-0)
    -If Bradley ties Evansville at 9-9, then the tiebreaker points would get extremely close. I've ran through some of the more likely scenarios of outcomes and it looks like the Purple Aces would claim the 4th seed — barely. The key is all of the points that Evansville would be making by knocking off one of the top two teams in the league. But what are the chances that Evansville can go into Cedar Falls and knock off a team that is trying to clinch a conference championship?
    -If there's a tie at 9-9 between all three teams, Bradley wins this tiebreaker as well. The league adds together the head-to-head records against all tied opponents. Bradley won three of four, while Evansville was 2-2 (and would earn the 5th seed) and Wichita State would be 1-3 and be seeded sixth.

Looking at all of those possibilities, it seems almost certain that Bradley's going to be seeded 4th in the Valley tournament. Wichita State, Evansville and even Southern Illinois could be potential opponents.

The seeding from 5th to 8th is even worse than 4th to 6th. There's a definite possibility that there could be a three- or four-way tie at 8-10. If all of the home teams win this weekend, then Wichita State, Evansville and Southern Illinois would be tied (Drake would fall to 7-11 and be seeded 8th or 9th). Southern Illinois would actually win this tiebreaker, securing two wins over Wichita State.

The team that has no idea where it is going has to be the Salukis. SIU could finish as high as 5th (if that four-way tie were to happen) but could drop as low as 9th! Wichita State has almost as confusing of a situation, looking at somewhere between 5th and 8th.

With so many possibilities still out there, keep in mind a few things:

    -Evansville and Wichita State stay out of the play-in game with wins.
    -SIU is the only team in this bunch that is at home, which is certainly an advantage.
    -Wichita State would lose a head-to-head tie with SIU, but otherwise has the most tiebreaker points at the moment.
    -Anything can happen - the Valley is really mediocre this year and nothing surprises me anymore!

Looking near the bottom of the standings, Indiana State is locked in the play-in game, but could finish anywhere between 7th and 9th still. Missouri State will be the 10th seed, having already clinched the cellar in the conference.

February 24, 2009

Bradley @ Loyola: Photos

I put together a slideshow of the pictures I took at the Bradley-Loyola game. Enjoy!

Bradley at Loyola

Click the photo above to view a slideshow.

(Note: I'm back dating this post, as I don't want to confuse anyone who is looking for the MVC standings update. I am really posting this on 2/25.)

February 18, 2009

Missouri Valley Standings Update

Things got even more interesting after Northern Iowa blew a game at home to Drake and Indiana State stole a road win at the once invincible SIU Arena.

So, here's how we stand after 2/18:




Conference Tiebreaker Pts.


Place Wins Losses Max. Earned
Northern Iowa
1 12 4
173 107 (-1)
Creighton
1
12 4 173 96 (+7)
Illinois State
3 11 5 179 90 (+10)
Bradley
4 9
7 183 59 (-2)
Evansville
5 7 9
191 42 (+5)
Wichita State

5 7 9
191 75 (+3)
Drake
5
7
9 191 70 (+18)
Southern Ill.
8
6 10
201
66 (+7)
Indiana State
8
6
10 201 40 (-1)
Missouri State
10 3 13 207 27 (+1)


The Drake win moves them into a tie with Wichita State and Evansville for fifth place in the Valley. But, the Bulldogs would still be in the play-in game right now as they would lose the mini-round robin tiebreaker between the three teams. Evansville is 3-1, Wichita State is 2-2 and Drake is 1-3 versus one another.

Now of course, if Drake falls out of a tie, then Wichita State will move ahead of Evansville, as the Shockers have a lot more of tiebreaker points.

For those of you who hope Bradley could somehow move up to third with two wins and two Illinois State losses, don't count on it. The Braves will only make up approximately 20 points on Illinois State with two wins, not enough to secure the third seed, even as the point values get shifted slightly in the last week.

On the positive side, Wichita State's loss tonight to Illinois State secures Bradley a spot in Friday's games, no matter what happens. In the unlikely event there is a 4-way tie for fourth place, Wichita State's two wins against the other three teams (Bradley, Drake, Evansville) would be the worst total and would push the Shockers into the play-in game.

At the top of the Valley, things could get extremely interesting, especially since Illinois State has games against both Northern Iowa and Creighton remaining. If the Redbirds could find a way to win both, they'd almost surely have the most tiebreaker points (and would hold the head-to-head advantage over Creighton) and take the top seed.

Of course, if Northern Iowa and Creighton tie, then the Panthers will finish first. As the two are in almost a dead heat in playoff points, you need to look at their remaining games. They both have a common opponent of Illinois State. As long as both have the same result, then those points are a wash. But, Creighton has lowly Missouri State left, while Northern Iowa still has a game against Evansville, which will have a much higher point value.

But, so much is still left to be determined. With the large amount of accumulated points that Indiana State has, the Sycamores could easily get out of the play-in game if they could pull off a road upset over Wichita State next week. Even SIU, who may be struggling more than any other Valley team (lost 5 of 6) could still move up, with games against Drake and Wichita State.

The wild and crazy Valley race continues next week after BracketBuster weekend...

February 16, 2009

MVC tiebreaker update

Last year I took the time to create a spreadsheet that would calculate the MVC tiebreaker procedures. Even to this day, it's a work in progress. The challenging part about the system is that depending on every game, the numbers change. So, the spreadsheet has to be set up to make that fluid.

So, here's the current tiebreaker breakdown as I have everything calculated:




Conference Tiebreaker Pts.


Place Wins Losses Max. Earned
Northern Iowa
1 12 3 171 108
Creighton
2 11 4 175 96
Illinois State
3 10 5 179 80
Bradley
4 8 7 183 61
Wichita State
5 7 8 189 72
Evansville
5 7 8 189 37
Drake
7 6 9 197 52
Southern Ill.
7 6 9 197 41
Indiana State
9 5 10 203 59
Missouri State
10 3 12 207 26

(Wichita State would be the 5 seed right now, as it split with Evansville and has a sizable margin in tiebreaker points. Drake has won the only game between it and the Salukis and also is the leader in tiebreaker points. An SIU win over Drake could make it very interesting.)

Now, here's a team-by-team breakdown. Please note the semantics here. If the season ended today, Wichita State and Evansville would both be considered in a tie for fifth place. But all we're looking at now is the possibility of seeding for Arch Madness in St. Louis.

First let's look at who holds head-to-head tiebreakers:

Northern Iowa - Bradley, Missouri State, Southern Illinois

Creighton - Bradley, Indiana State, Southern Illinois

Illinois State - Evansville, Missouri State, Southern Illinois

Bradley - Indiana State, Wichita State

Wichita State - None

Evansville - Drake, Indiana State

Drake - None

Southern Illinois - Missouri State

Indiana State - Illinois State

Missouri State - None

Bradley's two wins over the Shockers will almost surely keep the Braves ahead, barring a very poor finish from the Bradley against some weak opponents. Evansville's sweep of Drake should prevent the Aces from being in the play-in game.

Some important scenarios obviously haven't been determined yet. Illinois State leads its series with Creighton 1-0. The Redbirds trail the series with Northern Iowa but Illinois State has its chance against UNI in Normal next week. Southern Illinois will likely have a lot to do with who is in the play-in game, as it still has games against Drake and Wichita State remaining.

Predicted finish as of 12/15 (assuming generally that home teams will win in close matchups):

1. Creighton 14-4 (W vs. Evansville, W @ Missouri State, W vs. Illinois State / Would likely lead in tiebreaker points over UNI if they win out)

2. Northern Iowa 14-4 (W vs. Drake, L @ Illinois State, W vs. Evansville)

3. Illinois State 12-6 (W vs. Wichita State, W v. Northern Iowa, L @ Creighton)

4. Bradley 10-8 (W vs. Missouri State, L @ Evansville, W vs. Drake)

5. Wichita State 9-9 (L @ Illinois State, W vs. Indiana State, W @ Southern Illinois - just have a feeling)

6. Evansville 8-10 (L @ Creighton, W vs. Bradley, L @ Northern Iowa)

7. Drake 7-11 (Will edge SIU due to "prospective" head-to-head sweep / L @ Northern Iowa, W vs. Southern Illinois, L @ Bradley)

8. Southern Illinois 7-11 (W vs. Indiana State, L @ Drake, L vs. Wichita State)

9. Indiana State 6-12 (L @ Southern Illinois, L @ Wichita State, W vs. Missouri State)

10. Missouri State 3-15 (L @ Bradley, L vs. Creighton, L @ Indiana State)

But as any Valley fan knows, things could change in a heartbeat. Illinois State could make a run for the title still.