Important games for the Valley this weekend

Most of the games involving Missouri Valley conference teams this weekend look one-sided. But, if the teams hope to raise the conference's overall RPI, an upset or two needs to happen.

Scouting the Braves

Bradley certainly needs a confidence boost after its performance against Butler on Wednesday. The Braves should get that Sunday against Southeast Missouri State, a team whose only Division I win this season comes against Longwood.

The Redhawks have a few good players, including forward Calvin Williams (6'9" So.). He has shot 59.7 percent from the floor this season and also grabs seven rebounds per game.

Most of his best games though have come against inferior competition. He didn't play against New Mexico and Kansas State. Williams' only game that he shot under 50 percent (3 of 8 shooting) was 34-point loss at Iowa.

SEMO also has two other players who average in double figures, guard Kenard Moore (15.3 PPG) and forward Jaycen Herring (14.7 PPG). Just like Williams, both players had bad games against the better opponents on the Redhawks' schedule.

Games like these often come down to depth, as Bradley usually outlasts these smaller conference teams. The Redhawks only play eight guys regularly, whereas the Braves will go nine to ten players deep.

The biggest question about this game isn't whether or not the Braves are going to win but rather who will be the guys on the floor bringing home the victory. Coach Jim Les declared that "changes will be made" after the Butler loss. Will this difference include a change in playing time for certain players or different lineups on the floor?

With the start of conference play only 15 days away, Bradley needs to start shaping its identity and finding players that can be consistent contributors.

Biggest opportunity for a statement

Evansville (6-1) gets a chance to truly show if it's going to be a serious league contender tonight at Western Kentucky (5-2). The Purple Aces have beaten a couple decent opponents (Austin Peay, Buffalo), but this game should be their toughest test yet. Western Kentucky has already knocked off nationally ranked Louisville on the road.

Evansville has shot well as a team this season at 44 percent. The team will need to have a big game from its leaders Shy Ely and Jason Holsinger in order to pull off the upset.

Intriguing games

Two enigmatic teams this season have been Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa. Both have had good and bad performances and look to make statements on the road this weekend.

Southern Illinois (3-4) goes to Nevada (4-4) as a return game from last year's Bracketbuster matchup, one that the Salukis won 74-49. Neither team has gotten off to a good start this season, but SIU has played a much tougher schedule. Maybe the young Saluki team can come together and bring home a win for the Valley.

Northern Iowa (5-4) also heads west to play Wyoming (6-1). Having seen Northern Iowa play in person against Auburn led me to believe that this would be a solid team. But, the Panthers have also had some really poor performances and playing on the Cowboys' in Wyoming (though not their home floor) won't be easy.

Look for a Valley win in at least one of these games.

Predictions

Saturday

No. 17 Purdue over Indiana State

Wyoming over Northern Iowa

Creighton over Northern Colorado

Western Kentucky over Evansville

Missouri State over Central Arkansas

Drake over Stephen F. Austin

Sunday

Bradley over Southeast Missouri State

Illinois State over Morehead State

Southern Illinois over Nevada (Upset of the weekend)

Game Eight Recap: Butler @ Bradley

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Traveling five hours in a day to Bradley games isn't for everyone. But even though the Braves were burnt on their home court by a hot shooting Butler team, the trip still had value.

Butler made 13 three-pointers and shot 53 percent overall en route to a victory over Bradley on Wednesday. The game dropped the Braves to 4-4 overall, whereas Butler stayed a perfect 8-0.

Having made the five-hour trek to and from Peoria, this game has had a chance to settle a bit before discussing what happened.

No team should come to Carver Arena and be able to put up 87 points, especially a team as young as the Bulldogs. That being said, Butler has assembled another solid team that will surely continue to get better in the next 3-4 years.

Bradley made a point to stop leading scorer Matt Howard, which it did rather well. The sophomore forward sat most of the first half with foul trouble and the Braves limited him to 2-of-7 shooting and nine points overall.

The problem was, as Bradley sagged down to stop Howard, Butler had five different players that hit from beyond the arc. Forward Gordon Hayward couldn't be stopped in the first half, netting Butler's first eight points and 17 total during the first twenty minutes. He helped the Bulldogs streak out to a 20-6 lead to start the game, putting Bradley in a huge hole from which it never recovered.

Guard Shelvin Mack had a solid game throughout, matching fellow freshman Hayward for high scoring honors with 20. These two are already really good players and they've got 3 1/2 seasons of eligibility left.

Bradley tried to battle back from a 13-point halftime deficit, and nearly got there, trimming the Butler lead to 57-52 with 10:35 left. But, as they did the entire game, the Bulldogs answered another punch from the Braves, reeling off 16 of the next 21 points to put the game out of reach.

While Butler did have a great game, Bradley didn't do much to stop the Bulldogs. Slow defensive rotations led to either wide open jumpers or layups when the Braves didn't rotate quickly enough on screens.

From a player perspective, freshman guard Eddren McCain clearly was the most valuable Brave. He poured in a career-high 18 points and looks like he's rapidly turning into the point guard of not just the future, but also the present.

Another bright spot was sophomore guard Sam Maniscalco, who was coming off a rough game at Michigan State. He looked sharper, quicker and finally knocked down his 3-point attempts (4 of 5). Maniscalco should start at the off/shooting guard position next to McCain.

As for the rest of the team, the effort looked either inconsistent or not there at all. Guards Dodie Dunson and Chris Roberts both had poor defensive games. Center David Collins was invisible again, seeing his minutes drop from 23 against Michigan State to just 11 versus Butler.

But, all of those lost minutes didn't go to center Anthony Thompson, who was firmly planted on the bench until four minutes left in the game. Most of these went to freshman Taylor Brown, who looks to have a lot of talent, but shouldn't be playing the five position at only 6'6" tall.

Forward Theron Wilson had his usual impressive moments, including a couple great hustle plays and a tip slam dunk. But, for a team that desperately needs leadership, he went stretches of the game where he too was invisible. Wilson finished with the quietest 15 points in recent memory.

Listening to the postgame show, head coach Jim Les had little positives to say. He sounded angry and pledged that there would be changes to the lineup and certain privileges would be taken away from the team.

Maybe they won't be able to use their locker room? Coaches have done it before.

What the lineup changes are can only be pure speculation at this point, but look for Collins and Roberts to be moved out of the starting lineup in favor of Brown and McCain.

***

Though the final turned out to be ugly, I was able to take some pretty decent pictures at this game. If anyone looked at my shots from the 2007 Michigan State game, it will be evident how much better of a camera I am using now.

Click the photo above to view a slideshow.

Scouting: Butler Bulldogs

The Bulldogs from Butler University come to Peoria for a big game Wednesday. Most of Bradley's games have been against teams that weren't equally matched. Florida and Michigan State clearly have more talent than the Braves. But, the Braves certainly were better than the likes of Florida Gulf Coast and East Tennessee State.

The Butler game will be different, giving Bradley a chance to play a quality opponent who shouldn't overpower them.

The Bulldogs have run off seven straight wins to start the season but have a lot of inexperience in their lineup. Most notably, they have beaten two Missouri Valley Conference teams (vs. Evansville, at Drake) as well as a home win against Northwestern. Most of their victories have been anywhere between eight- and ten-point margins.

Statistically, the Bulldogs only have given up 52.4 points per game, good for sixth overall in Division I. They are a team that plays tenacious man-to-man defense, but with how poorly Bradley has been shooting from the perimeter, will that change?

Even with three road wins, none of these came in a boisterous place like Carver Arena. Fans of the Braves will need to be loud and try to rattle the inexperienced Butler team.

From a personnel perspective, Butler has three players that average double figures in scoring: forward Matt Howard (6'7" So.), guard Shelvin Mack (6'3" Fr.), Gordon Hayward (6'8" Fr.). All three shoot at least 46 percent from the floor.

Howard had a good game against Bradley last season at Hinkle Fieldhouse. He finished with 14 points and six rebounds, easily pushing around the Bradley post players.

To make matters more challenging for Bradley, the trio of Mack, Hayward and Zach Hahn (6'0" So.) all have outside shooting ability (38, 44 and 40 percent, respectively).

Butler also takes care of the ball well, only turning the ball over 11 times per game. Maybe Bradley's team quickness will be able to disrupt the Butler offense more than the Bulldogs' first opponents have.

Butler plays ten players, all of whom have played in every game. The Bulldogs aren't an overly big team though, so size isn't as big of a concern as it often can be for the Braves.

Important aspects to watch:

Slow down Howard - This young big man looked pretty impressive last season. He looked too quick for forward Sam Singh, so it'll be interesting who matches up against him. In Singh's defense, he's looked more nimble himself this year, so I'd imagine we'll see a lot of this matchup.

No freebies - The team shooting percentage from the free throw line is only 68 percent. But these numbers are skewed by poor totals from some of the players who don't see much time. Of the six players who have at least 10 shot attempts, only guard Ronald Nored (6'0" Fr.) shoots less than 71 percent.

Bradley must play smart defense and will likely need to play more zone in order to stay out of foul trouble.

Freshman mistakes - Just as the Braves need to limit their turnovers (which on the whole has improved lately), they also must force the Bulldogs into committing some. Nored averages 2.0 assists but 2.4 turnovers per game. Using the home court to its advantage, Bradley must cause Nored to make mistakes.

Play your game - These two teams play contrasting styles, with Bradley trying to get out and run and Butler looking to slow down. The Braves need to get out in transition and not let Butler dictate the pace, which is what happened in Indianapolis last year.

***

Bradley really needs to win this game as its on their home court. The team needs proof that it can not only play with some of the better teams in the nation, but actually beat them. Hopefully the first half of the Michigan State game showed the Braves a glimmer of that chance. Butler's team is just as young as Bradley's and the Bulldogs are the on road. This one should be a thriller.

Final prediction: Bradley 67, Butler 65

Game Seven Recap: Bradley @ Michigan State

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Another big name opponent, another big time defeat.

Bradley dropped to 4-3 after No. 12/13 Michigan State (5-2) exploded for 43 second half points and a 16-point victory. The Braves kept the game close for awhile, only trailing at the half by five, but persistent poor shooting dug themselves into a insurmountable deficit.

Playing a full 40-minutes must be a focus for Bradley in the weeks and months ahead. For the signs of brilliance that the Braves show, these often are counteracted by pronounced dry spells.

For as often as a "team-first" attitude can lead to on-the-court results, the importance of a dynamic player also has value in college basketball. The teams who have played the best in the Missouri Valley Conference this season (Illinois State, Creighton, Drake) all have at least one, if not two or three, players who can take over a game.

Unfortunately for Bradley, that young man hasn't stepped on the court all season. Guard Andrew Warren was sorely missed today, more than any other game.

The Braves shot a dismal 4-of-22 from 3-point range (18.2 percent) and 20-of-59 from the floor (33.9 percent). This type of shooting led to long stretches where Bradley simply couldn't score. Warren may have been able to break the Braves from their doldrums.

Even when the team got to the line, that didn't seem to help either. Bradley hit 57.7 percent of its free throws (15-of-26), another ingredient in the recipe for a road loss. Many of the most critical misses occurred late in the first half when Bradley was still in the game.

Michigan State simply hit more shots than the Braves and that's what cost the road squad a chance at victory. Bradley didn't give up an exceptional amount of offensive rebounds like last year's game in Peoria. The team also had less turnovers than the Spartans (Bradley 16, Michigan State 19).

Some of the other stat lines look deceiving. The Spartans held a 45-32 advantage in overall rebounds, but Bradley also missed a lot more shots, so Michigan State was bound to have more rebound opportunities.

Bradley only had six assists, but if the team had shot better, then the assist totals would have obviously gone up, too.

Give Michigan State credit for getting through this one with as much as ease it did. The Spartans didn't play well for much of the game, missing some easy layups and making ill-advised turnovers.

This Bradley team has proven that it can't hang with the top teams in the country when its top scorer from last season is still sidelined. But, with most of the rest of the MVC teams struggling, Bradley still has as good of a chance as any to be a contender.

Other observations:

* - Center David Collins came out with some intensity and had two baskets early in the game. He finished with nine points altogether, but only grabbed two rebounds. Hopefully this game was a sign of him improving again and not just an aberration.

* - Forward Theron Wilson looked noticeably frustrated with the quickness of Michigan State. His ability to drive to the basket should pick back up in future games against less talented teams.

* - The most worrisome shooting performance came from guard Sam Maniscalco, again. He missed all five three-pointers he took and also committed six turnovers.

* - Center Anthony Thompson barely saw the floor, which came as a surprise. Instead of taking over injured center Will Egolf's minutes, Collins and forward Taylor Brown saw increased playing time. Hopefully head coach Jim Les will give Thompson a chance soon.

* - One of the first true barometers for this Bradley team comes Wednesday against the undefeated Butler Bulldogs at Carver Arena. These are the types of teams the Braves will need to beat if they are to truly have another positive season.

(I will be in attendance for this game, so expect another photo slide show if I can get any interesting pictures.)