Missouri Valley Standings Update

Things got even more interesting after Northern Iowa blew a game at home to Drake and Indiana State stole a road win at the once invincible SIU Arena.

So, here's how we stand after 2/18:

			Conference		Tiebreaker Pts.
		Place	Wins	Losses	Max.	Earned
Northern Iowa		1	12	4	173	107 (-1)
Creighton		1	12	4	173	96 (+7)
Illinois State		3	11	5	179	90 (+10)
Bradley		4	9	7	183	59 (-2)
Evansville		5	7	9	191	42 (+5)
Wichita State		5	7	9	191	75 (+3)
Drake		5	7	9	191	70 (+18)
Southern Ill.		8	6	10	201	66 (+7)
Indiana State		8	6	10	201	40 (-1)
Missouri State		10	3	13	207	27 (+1)

The Drake win moves them into a tie with Wichita State and Evansville for fifth place in the Valley. But, the Bulldogs would still be in the play-in game right now as they would lose the mini-round robin tiebreaker between the three teams. Evansville is 3-1, Wichita State is 2-2 and Drake is 1-3 versus one another.

Now of course, if Drake falls out of a tie, then Wichita State will move ahead of Evansville, as the Shockers have a lot more of tiebreaker points.

For those of you who hope Bradley could somehow move up to third with two wins and two Illinois State losses, don't count on it. The Braves will only make up approximately 20 points on Illinois State with two wins, not enough to secure the third seed, even as the point values get shifted slightly in the last week.

On the positive side, Wichita State's loss tonight to Illinois State secures Bradley a spot in Friday's games, no matter what happens. In the unlikely event there is a 4-way tie for fourth place, Wichita State's two wins against the other three teams (Bradley, Drake, Evansville) would be the worst total and would push the Shockers into the play-in game.

At the top of the Valley, things could get extremely interesting, especially since Illinois State has games against both Northern Iowa and Creighton remaining. If the Redbirds could find a way to win both, they'd almost surely have the most tiebreaker points (and would hold the head-to-head advantage over Creighton) and take the top seed.

Of course, if Northern Iowa and Creighton tie, then the Panthers will finish first. As the two are in almost a dead heat in playoff points, you need to look at their remaining games. They both have a common opponent of Illinois State. As long as both have the same result, then those points are a wash. But, Creighton has lowly Missouri State left, while Northern Iowa still has a game against Evansville, which will have a much higher point value.

But, so much is still left to be determined. With the large amount of accumulated points that Indiana State has, the Sycamores could easily get out of the play-in game if they could pull off a road upset over Wichita State next week. Even SIU, who may be struggling more than any other Valley team (lost 5 of 6) could still move up, with games against Drake and Wichita State.

The wild and crazy Valley race continues next week after BracketBuster weekend...

MVC tiebreaker update

Last year I took the time to create a spreadsheet that would calculate the MVC tiebreaker procedures. Even to this day, it's a work in progress. The challenging part about the system is that depending on every game, the numbers change. So, the spreadsheet has to be set up to make that fluid.

So, here's the current tiebreaker breakdown as I have everything calculated:

			Conference		Tiebreaker Pts.
		Place	Wins	Losses	Max.	Earned
Northern Iowa		1	12	3	171	108
Creighton		2	11	4	175	96
Illinois State		3	10	5	179	80
Bradley		4	8	7	183	61
Wichita State		5	7	8	189	72
Evansville		5	7	8	189	37
Drake		7	6	9	197	52
Southern Ill.		7	6	9	197	41
Indiana State		9	5	10	203	59
Missouri State		10	3	12	207	26

(Wichita State would be the 5 seed right now, as it split with Evansville and has a sizable margin in tiebreaker points. Drake has won the only game between it and the Salukis and also is the leader in tiebreaker points. An SIU win over Drake could make it very interesting.)

Now, here's a team-by-team breakdown. Please note the semantics here. If the season ended today, Wichita State and Evansville would both be considered in a tie for fifth place. But all we're looking at now is the possibility of seeding for Arch Madness in St. Louis.

First let's look at who holds head-to-head tiebreakers:

Northern Iowa - Bradley, Missouri State, Southern Illinois

Creighton - Bradley, Indiana State, Southern Illinois

Illinois State - Evansville, Missouri State, Southern Illinois

Bradley - Indiana State, Wichita State

Wichita State - None

Evansville - Drake, Indiana State

Drake - None

Southern Illinois - Missouri State

Indiana State - Illinois State

Missouri State - None

Bradley's two wins over the Shockers will almost surely keep the Braves ahead, barring a very poor finish from the Bradley against some weak opponents. Evansville's sweep of Drake should prevent the Aces from being in the play-in game.

Some important scenarios obviously haven't been determined yet. Illinois State leads its series with Creighton 1-0. The Redbirds trail the series with Northern Iowa but Illinois State has its chance against UNI in Normal next week. Southern Illinois will likely have a lot to do with who is in the play-in game, as it still has games against Drake and Wichita State remaining.

Predicted finish as of 12/15 (assuming generally that home teams will win in close matchups):

1. Creighton 14-4 (W vs. Evansville, W @ Missouri State, W vs. Illinois State / Would likely lead in tiebreaker points over UNI if they win out)

2. Northern Iowa 14-4 (W vs. Drake, L @ Illinois State, W vs. Evansville)

3. Illinois State 12-6 (W vs. Wichita State, W v. Northern Iowa, L @ Creighton)

4. Bradley 10-8 (W vs. Missouri State, L @ Evansville, W vs. Drake)

5. Wichita State 9-9 (L @ Illinois State, W vs. Indiana State, W @ Southern Illinois - just have a feeling)

6. Evansville 8-10 (L @ Creighton, W vs. Bradley, L @ Northern Iowa)

7. Drake 7-11 (Will edge SIU due to "prospective" head-to-head sweep / L @ Northern Iowa, W vs. Southern Illinois, L @ Bradley)

8. Southern Illinois 7-11 (W vs. Indiana State, L @ Drake, L vs. Wichita State)

9. Indiana State 6-12 (L @ Southern Illinois, L @ Wichita State, W vs. Missouri State)

10. Missouri State 3-15 (L @ Bradley, L vs. Creighton, L @ Indiana State)

But as any Valley fan knows, things could change in a heartbeat. Illinois State could make a run for the title still.