MVC standings could still see radical changes

Two favored teams almost stumbled at home tonight as both Wichita State and Illinois State barely won close games against Evansville and Missouri State, respectively.

What does that do to the MVC Standings? Let's take a look:

				Conference		Tiebreaker Pts.
			Place	Wins	Losses	Max.	Earned
Northern Iowa			1	14	2	171	124
Wichita State			2	11	5	175	103
Illinois State			3	10	6	179	81
Creighton*			4	8	8	187	58
Indiana State*			4	8	8	187	56
Bradley*			4	8	8	187	56
Drake			7	7	9	197	58
Missouri State			7	7	9	197	54
Southern Ill.			9	6	10	203	47
Evansville			10	1	15	207	17

* - Creighton leads the mini round-robin 2-1, Indiana State is 2-2, Bradley is 1-2

Now all of the upcoming scenarios left:

Northern Iowa

Current state: Clinched the conference title and the top overall seed in the MVC tournament.

Remaining games: at Evansville, vs. Illinois State

Tiebreaker thoughts: None, as they have clinched the 1 seed

Outlook: Northern Iowa, though it has locked up the regular season, will continue to play its remaining two games as the Panthers are trying to improve their seed in the eyes of the selection committee. A lapse in either of their last two games could really hurt their place on Selection Sunday.

Wichita State

Current state - Clinched no worse than third place overall, currently sits ahead of Illinois State by one game for second

Remaining games: at Bradley, vs. Southern Ill.

Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (1-1); The only team Wichita State has to worry about for tiebreakers are the Redbirds. This would go down to tiebreaker points if both teams finish 12-6. Since this would require Illinois State to win at Northern Iowa, the tiebreaker would go to Illinois State.

Outlook: The game at Bradley is huge for both teams. The Shockers can essentially lock up the two seed with a win in Peoria. Considering the fact that Wichita State is 16-0 at home this season, the home finale against Southern Illinois can almost be considered a lock, even after the scare by Evansville.

Illinois State

Current state: The Redbirds are one game out of second place and two games ahead of three teams tied for third.

Remaining games: vs. Indiana State, at Northern Iowa

Tiebreaker thoughts: Wichita State (Yes, if it comes into play, see above for explanation); Creighton (Yes, 2-0), Bradley (Yes, 2-0), Indiana State (0-1, TBD)

Outlook: Illinois State can win out and have a chance at second place with one Wichita State loss. The Redbirds have done a good job against the teams chasing them, eliminating any possibility of Creighton or Bradley from moving ahead. The interesting part comes in with Indiana State, who has to go to Redbird Arena next Wednesday. The Sycamores have a winnable finale at home against Missouri State and would win the tiebreaker against Illinois State if they can pull an upset. In a worst case scenario, Illinois State finishes 4th.

Creighton

Current state: Currently tied for fourth place, would be the 4 seed if the season ended today based upon a 2-1 record against Bradley & Indiana State

Remaining games: at Southern Illinois, vs. Bradley

Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (No, 0-2), Bradley (TBD, 1-0), Indiana State (1-1), Drake (1-1), Missouri State (1-1), Southern Illinois (TBD, 1-0)

Outlook: From Creighton down through Southern Illinois, the tiebreakers could really go a variety of ways. Both of the Bluejays remaining games aren't easy, considering the rivalry with Southern Illinois as well as a Bradley team who could beat any team in the league on a given night.

In one possible scenario, Creighton could win both games and if Indiana State also wins out, there's a chance for an tie in tiebreaker points. If this somehow happened, it would go the rare final tiebreaker of RPI. Indiana State has a RPI of 87 going into tonight as opposed to Creighton who came in with a RPI of 127. There simply won't be that large of a shift in the RPI this late in the season, so Indiana State would earn the higher seed.

Of course, if this were for the 4-5 game, all that comes from these complicated formulas is what color jerseys you wear. Of course, a win here or a loss there always shifts the balance of the tiebreaker formula so it simply is too close to call who would win tiebreaker points at this stage against Creighton.

Indiana State

Current state: Currently tied for fourth place, would be the 5 seed if the season ended today based upon a 2-2 record against Bradley & Indiana State

Remaining games: at Illinois State, vs. Missouri State

Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (TBD, 1-0, see explanation in the Redbirds section), Creighton (1-1), Bradley (1-1), Drake (Yes, 2-0), Missouri State (TBD, 0-1), Southern Illinois (1-1)

Outlook: Indiana State has the most direct effect on the resolution of the conference standings than pretty much any other team. Though other teams have big games as well, with the Sycamores winning 5 of 7, two more victory are definitely possible.

And with those two wins, Indiana State could finish as high as third. Yet, with two losses a variety of other factors, the Sycamores could sink to as low as the 9 seed. This is highly unlikely, though. A split would probably get Indiana State into the five seed but the Bradley-Creighton game will have a significant impact on that as well.

Bradley

Current state: Bradley is tied for fourth place and would be the 6 seed in the tournament based upon

Remaining games: vs. Wichita State, at Creighton

Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (No, 0-2), Creighton (TBD, 0-1), Indiana State (1-1), Drake (Yes, 2-0), Missouri State (1-1)

Outlook: Nobody can really gauge what Bradley will do in its final two games. If the team can pull together two consecutive wins, fourth place seems very likely. Two losses would put the Braves in the 6-7-8 range. The series sweep against Drake is huge here as Bradley is likely to win most round-robin tiebreakers as a result. The Braves can thank the Bulldogs for most likely keeping them out of the play-in game. Again though, a lot of different results (especially with how Missouri State does against Drake and Indiana State) could really sway the Bradley seeding.

Drake

Current state: Drake is currently tied for seventh place and would currently be the 7 seed as they hold a 1-0 series advantage against Missouri State.

Remaining games: at Missouri State, vs. Evansville

Tiebreaker thoughts: Creighton (1-1), Indiana State (No, 0-2), Bradley (No, 0-2), Missouri State (TBD, 1-0), Southern Illinois (Yes, 2-0)

Outlook: Series sweeps by both Bradley and Indiana State will likely relegate the Bulldogs to the play-in game. As a minor consolation, a sweep against Southern Illinois will probably keep Drake at the worst the 8 seed.

With such a close race and remaining games against important teams, Drake could get out of the play-in game by winning at Missouri State and hoping that either Bradley or Indiana State loses both games.

Missouri State

Current state: Missouri State is currently tied for seventh place and would currently be the 8 seed as they trail a 0-1 series disadvantage against Drake.

Remaining games: vs. Drake, at Indiana State

Tiebreaker thoughts: Creighton (1-1), Indiana State (TBD, 1-0), Bradley (1-1), Drake (TBD, 0-1), Southern Illinois (1-1)

Outlook: Missouri State sits in a very similar position to Drake. Win that head-to-head game and that will likely earn the 7 seed. But find a way to win at Indiana State as well and probably jump out of the play-in game into the 6 spot. Like many other teams, there are so many moving parts that tiebreakers are just too close to call.

Southern Illinois

Current state: 9th place, one game out of seventh

Remaining games: vs. Creighton, at Wichita State

Tiebreaker thoughts: Creighton (TBD, 0-1), Indiana State (1-1), Bradley (1-1), Drake (No, 0-2), Missouri State (1-1)

Outlook: The Salukis have two major things working for them. They are not trailing any important tiebreakers other than Drake. Also, they would gain a bundle of tiebreaker points by winning their last two games. But the challenge will be actually pulling off either of these upsets. Southern Illinois is going to be in the play-in game and most likely will remain the 9 seed.

Evansville

Current state: 10th place with no hope of gaining any ground

Remaining games: vs. Northern Iowa, at Drake

Tiebreaker thoughts: N/A

Outlook: The only thing Evansville can do to upset the balance of the standings at this point is to knock off Drake in the final game of the season. Though surely every fan would expect the Bulldogs to win on senior night in Des Moines, a defeat to the Purple Aces would almost assuredly send Drake to the play-in game.

Bradley falls back to .500 after OT loss at Indiana State

69	75

The 2009-2010 Bradley Braves simply can't turn the corner. After knocking off nationally ranked Northern Iowa on Saturday, the Braves (13-13, 8-8 MVC) didn't put together a complete performance and fell at Indiana State, 75-69 in overtime.

The "other" Aaron Carter led all scorers with 19 points and 10 rebounds. Doing his best impression of the famous pop singer, Carter made numerous big plays including the game winning shot with 40 seconds to play in overtime.

Bradley freshman guard Dyricus Simms-Edwards continues to blossom scoring a career-high 14 points to go along with four assists and two rebounds. Even though he lacks experience, Simms-Edwards had the guts to attempt and make a long 3-pointer with less than two minutes remaining in overtime. At the time, his shot tied the game at 66-66.

After Carl Richard made a jumper on the following possession, Simms-Edwards continued to show his confidence with a hard drive to the basket. The shot didn't fall but sophomore center Will Egolf grabbed the rebound and fed junior guard Andrew Warren for an open 3-pointer to give the Braves a brief 69-68 lead with 1:00 to play.

The Sycamores (16-11, 8-8 MVC) were having some success driving to the basket late in the game and head coach Kevin McKenna drew up the perfect play to capitalize on that. Jordan Printy drove quickly to the basket and the entire Bradley defense bit, leaving multiple shooters open on the perimeter. Printy found Carter in the corner and it was a lead that would not be relinquished.

Simms-Edwards tried to score for the third straight possession but his contested jumper simply wouldn't fall in the hoop. A few free throws later and Bradley had fallen squarely backward in the conference standings.

The statistics were fairly even on the game as both teams shot about 40 percent from the floor. But the Braves committed 17 turnovers and shot 10 less free throws than Indiana State did.

Warren and junior guard Sam Maniscalco combined for just 3 points in the first half, but helped lead the charge to get back into the game after trailing by 10 at the break. Maniscalco led Bradley with 15 points and 5 assists while Warren added 13 points of his own.

Sophomore forward Taylor Brown was solid as well, pulling down his sixth double-double of the season (14 points, 13 rebounds). Even though senior guard Chris Roberts had a quiet scoring night (5 points), he did contribute 11 rebounds and three assists.

So, if so many of the Braves had decent games, why did Bradley come up short in Terre Haute? Well, the Will Egolf factor was in effect again - as he goes, so do the Braves. The sophomore center simply wasn't sharp, making 2-of-7 from the floor, committing three turnovers and fouling out in overtime.

This isn't to be too harsh on Egolf, as he certainly wasn't the main reason Bradley lost. Everybody made mistakes and these all combined together to result in a frustrating defeat. The Braves lack of interior players (other than Egolf) makes the team so reliant on him to be good game after game. And when he does have an off night (as every player does during the course of a season), Bradley usually struggles to pull out a victory.

This loss really puts a lot of pressure on the Braves now, who would have held tiebreakers over Drake and Indiana State and almost assured themselves a top six finish in the Valley. Now only two games remain against second place Wichita State and at Creighton, both teams that will be a major challenge to secure a victory. If Bradley doesn't get either of these games, a trip to the play-in game would be very possible.

But everyone has seen the capability of this team to beat the upper echelon programs in the league. Even after close losses (vs. Creighton, vs. Illinois State, at Northern Iowa), Bradley has proven it can beat any of these teams.

The BracketBuster

Bradley hosts Drexel on Saturday night in Peoria at 7:05 pm. This final regular season non-conference game is part of the BracketBusters series that helps the mid-major schools try and strengthen a resume to get invited to the NCAA tournament.

Because of how average the entire conference has been all season, only Northern Iowa (who hosts Old Dominion on Saturday) really has a chance to enhance or hinder its at-large bid consideration. Though Bradley certainly wishes it had something more significant to play for in this game, it does provide a good test against a solid east coast program.

The Dragons are 15-13 overall after falling big at VCU tonight, 73-54. The interesting aspect to watch will be how Bradley can handle Drexel's depth. While Bradley is essentially playing a 6-7 man rotation now, the Dragons are playing 8-9 deep.