Missouri Valley Picture Gets Clearer

Northern Iowa's big win at Illinois State assures the Panthers of finishing in the top two in the Valley, while ISU has locked up the third seed in the tournament.

Let's check out the full standings after 17 of 18 league games:

			Conference		Tiebreaker Pts.
		Place	Wins	Losses	Max.	Earned
Northern Iowa		1	13	4	173	125 (+18)
Creighton		1	13	4	173	107 (+11)
Illinois State		3	11	6	179	91 (+1)
Bradley		4	9	8	183	62 (+3)
Wichita State		5	8	9	189	75 (0)
Evansville		5	8	9	189	50 (+8)
Drake		7	7	10	197	72 (+2)
Southern Ill.		7	7	10	197	48 (+8)
Indiana State		9	6	11	201	65 (-1)
Missouri State		10	3	14	207	26 (-1)

Just like last time, I'll remind those who read breakdown that we're merely talking about tournament seeding. If Northern Iowa and Creighton both win Saturday, they'd be crowned conference co-champions. But UNI would be the top seed.

The Panthers split with Creighton, so they would win any tie by virtue of an insurmountable advantage in tiebreaker points. Even with a Creighton win over Illinois State this weekend, it would not be enough to catch UNI.

So with things pretty simple at the top, it's still very foggy in the middle of the Valley. Bradley's disappointing performance at Evansville drops the Braves much closer to the pack. A win would have clinched the 4th seed, but now Saturday's home finale against Drake has even greater importance than just senior night.

Bradley could make it very simple and just win at home, which would lock up the 4th seed. The Braves might be able to back into that same seed by Wichita State (at Southern Illinois) and Evansville (at Northern Iowa) both losing, which is very plausible.

If we have some ties, here's how it will look:

-If Bradley ties Wichita State at 9-9, then the Braves take the 4th seed (head-to-head, 2-0)

-If Bradley ties Evansville at 9-9, then the tiebreaker points would get extremely close. I've ran through some of the more likely scenarios of outcomes and it looks like the Purple Aces would claim the 4th seed — barely. The key is all of the points that Evansville would be making by knocking off one of the top two teams in the league. But what are the chances that Evansville can go into Cedar Falls and knock off a team that is trying to clinch a conference championship?

-If there's a tie at 9-9 between all three teams, Bradley wins this tiebreaker as well. The league adds together the head-to-head records against all tied opponents. Bradley won three of four, while Evansville was 2-2 (and would earn the 5th seed) and Wichita State would be 1-3 and be seeded sixth.

Looking at all of those possibilities, it seems almost certain that Bradley's going to be seeded 4th in the Valley tournament. Wichita State, Evansville and even Southern Illinois could be potential opponents.

The seeding from 5th to 8th is even worse than 4th to 6th. There's a definite possibility that there could be a three- or four-way tie at 8-10. If all of the home teams win this weekend, then Wichita State, Evansville and Southern Illinois would be tied (Drake would fall to 7-11 and be seeded 8th or 9th). Southern Illinois would actually win this tiebreaker, securing two wins over Wichita State.

The team that has no idea where it is going has to be the Salukis. SIU could finish as high as 5th (if that four-way tie were to happen) but could drop as low as 9th! Wichita State has almost as confusing of a situation, looking at somewhere between 5th and 8th.

With so many possibilities still out there, keep in mind a few things:

-Evansville and Wichita State stay out of the play-in game with wins.

-SIU is the only team in this bunch that is at home, which is certainly an advantage.

-Wichita State would lose a head-to-head tie with SIU, but otherwise has the most tiebreaker points at the moment.

-Anything can happen - the Valley is really mediocre this year and nothing surprises me anymore!

Looking near the bottom of the standings, Indiana State is locked in the play-in game, but could finish anywhere between 7th and 9th still. Missouri State will be the 10th seed, having already clinched the cellar in the conference.