Two favored teams almost stumbled at home tonight as both Wichita State and Illinois State barely won close games against Evansville and Missouri State, respectively.
What does that do to the MVC Standings? Let's take a look:
| Conference | Tiebreaker Pts. | ||||||
| Place | Wins | Losses | Max. | Earned | |||
| Northern Iowa | 1 | 14 | 2 | 171 | 124 | ||
| Wichita State | 2 | 11 | 5 | 175 | 103 | ||
| Illinois State | 3 | 10 | 6 | 179 | 81 | ||
| Creighton* | 4 | 8 | 8 | 187 | 58 | ||
| Indiana State* | 4 | 8 | 8 | 187 | 56 | ||
| Bradley* | 4 | 8 | 8 | 187 | 56 | ||
| Drake | 7 | 7 | 9 | 197 | 58 | ||
| Missouri State | 7 | 7 | 9 | 197 | 54 | ||
| Southern Ill. | 9 | 6 | 10 | 203 | 47 | ||
| Evansville | 10 | 1 | 15 | 207 | 17 | ||
* - Creighton leads the mini round-robin 2-1, Indiana State is 2-2, Bradley is 1-2
Now all of the upcoming scenarios left:
Northern Iowa
Current state: Clinched the conference title and the top overall seed in the MVC tournament.
Remaining games: at Evansville, vs. Illinois State
Tiebreaker thoughts: None, as they have clinched the 1 seed
Outlook: Northern Iowa, though it has locked up the regular season, will continue to play its remaining two games as the Panthers are trying to improve their seed in the eyes of the selection committee. A lapse in either of their last two games could really hurt their place on Selection Sunday.
Wichita State
Current state - Clinched no worse than third place overall, currently sits ahead of Illinois State by one game for second
Remaining games: at Bradley, vs. Southern Ill.
Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (1-1); The only team Wichita State has to worry about for tiebreakers are the Redbirds. This would go down to tiebreaker points if both teams finish 12-6. Since this would require Illinois State to win at Northern Iowa, the tiebreaker would go to Illinois State.
Outlook: The game at Bradley is huge for both teams. The Shockers can essentially lock up the two seed with a win in Peoria. Considering the fact that Wichita State is 16-0 at home this season, the home finale against Southern Illinois can almost be considered a lock, even after the scare by Evansville.
Illinois State
Current state: The Redbirds are one game out of second place and two games ahead of three teams tied for third.
Remaining games: vs. Indiana State, at Northern Iowa
Tiebreaker thoughts: Wichita State (Yes, if it comes into play, see above for explanation); Creighton (Yes, 2-0), Bradley (Yes, 2-0), Indiana State (0-1, TBD)
Outlook: Illinois State can win out and have a chance at second place with one Wichita State loss. The Redbirds have done a good job against the teams chasing them, eliminating any possibility of Creighton or Bradley from moving ahead. The interesting part comes in with Indiana State, who has to go to Redbird Arena next Wednesday. The Sycamores have a winnable finale at home against Missouri State and would win the tiebreaker against Illinois State if they can pull an upset. In a worst case scenario, Illinois State finishes 4th.
Creighton
Current state: Currently tied for fourth place, would be the 4 seed if the season ended today based upon a 2-1 record against Bradley & Indiana State
Remaining games: at Southern Illinois, vs. Bradley
Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (No, 0-2), Bradley (TBD, 1-0), Indiana State (1-1), Drake (1-1), Missouri State (1-1), Southern Illinois (TBD, 1-0)
Outlook: From Creighton down through Southern Illinois, the tiebreakers could really go a variety of ways. Both of the Bluejays remaining games aren't easy, considering the rivalry with Southern Illinois as well as a Bradley team who could beat any team in the league on a given night.
In one possible scenario, Creighton could win both games and if Indiana State also wins out, there's a chance for an tie in tiebreaker points. If this somehow happened, it would go the rare final tiebreaker of RPI. Indiana State has a RPI of 87 going into tonight as opposed to Creighton who came in with a RPI of 127. There simply won't be that large of a shift in the RPI this late in the season, so Indiana State would earn the higher seed.
Of course, if this were for the 4-5 game, all that comes from these complicated formulas is what color jerseys you wear. Of course, a win here or a loss there always shifts the balance of the tiebreaker formula so it simply is too close to call who would win tiebreaker points at this stage against Creighton.
Indiana StateCurrent state: Currently tied for fourth place, would be the 5 seed if the season ended today based upon a 2-2 record against Bradley & Indiana State
Remaining games: at Illinois State, vs. Missouri State
Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (TBD, 1-0, see explanation in the Redbirds section), Creighton (1-1), Bradley (1-1), Drake (Yes, 2-0), Missouri State (TBD, 0-1), Southern Illinois (1-1)
Outlook: Indiana State has the most direct effect on the resolution of the conference standings than pretty much any other team. Though other teams have big games as well, with the Sycamores winning 5 of 7, two more victory are definitely possible.
And with those two wins, Indiana State could finish as high as third. Yet, with two losses a variety of other factors, the Sycamores could sink to as low as the 9 seed. This is highly unlikely, though. A split would probably get Indiana State into the five seed but the Bradley-Creighton game will have a significant impact on that as well.
Bradley
Current state: Bradley is tied for fourth place and would be the 6 seed in the tournament based upon
Remaining games: vs. Wichita State, at Creighton
Tiebreaker thoughts: Illinois State (No, 0-2), Creighton (TBD, 0-1), Indiana State (1-1), Drake (Yes, 2-0), Missouri State (1-1)
Outlook: Nobody can really gauge what Bradley will do in its final two games. If the team can pull together two consecutive wins, fourth place seems very likely. Two losses would put the Braves in the 6-7-8 range. The series sweep against Drake is huge here as Bradley is likely to win most round-robin tiebreakers as a result. The Braves can thank the Bulldogs for most likely keeping them out of the play-in game. Again though, a lot of different results (especially with how Missouri State does against Drake and Indiana State) could really sway the Bradley seeding.
Drake
Current state: Drake is currently tied for seventh place and would currently be the 7 seed as they hold a 1-0 series advantage against Missouri State.
Remaining games: at Missouri State, vs. Evansville
Tiebreaker thoughts: Creighton (1-1), Indiana State (No, 0-2), Bradley (No, 0-2), Missouri State (TBD, 1-0), Southern Illinois (Yes, 2-0)
Outlook: Series sweeps by both Bradley and Indiana State will likely relegate the Bulldogs to the play-in game. As a minor consolation, a sweep against Southern Illinois will probably keep Drake at the worst the 8 seed.
With such a close race and remaining games against important teams, Drake could get out of the play-in game by winning at Missouri State and hoping that either Bradley or Indiana State loses both games.
Missouri State
Current state: Missouri State is currently tied for seventh place and would currently be the 8 seed as they trail a 0-1 series disadvantage against Drake.
Remaining games: vs. Drake, at Indiana State
Tiebreaker thoughts: Creighton (1-1), Indiana State (TBD, 1-0), Bradley (1-1), Drake (TBD, 0-1), Southern Illinois (1-1)
Outlook: Missouri State sits in a very similar position to Drake. Win that head-to-head game and that will likely earn the 7 seed. But find a way to win at Indiana State as well and probably jump out of the play-in game into the 6 spot. Like many other teams, there are so many moving parts that tiebreakers are just too close to call.
Southern Illinois
Current state: 9th place, one game out of seventh
Remaining games: vs. Creighton, at Wichita State
Tiebreaker thoughts: Creighton (TBD, 0-1), Indiana State (1-1), Bradley (1-1), Drake (No, 0-2), Missouri State (1-1)
Outlook: The Salukis have two major things working for them. They are not trailing any important tiebreakers other than Drake. Also, they would gain a bundle of tiebreaker points by winning their last two games. But the challenge will be actually pulling off either of these upsets. Southern Illinois is going to be in the play-in game and most likely will remain the 9 seed.
Evansville
Current state: 10th place with no hope of gaining any ground
Remaining games: vs. Northern Iowa, at Drake
Tiebreaker thoughts: N/A
Outlook: The only thing Evansville can do to upset the balance of the standings at this point is to knock off Drake in the final game of the season. Though surely every fan would expect the Bulldogs to win on senior night in Des Moines, a defeat to the Purple Aces would almost assuredly send Drake to the play-in game.
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