Things got even more interesting after Northern Iowa blew a game at home to Drake and Indiana State stole a road win at the once invincible SIU Arena.
So, here's how we stand after 2/18:
| Conference | Tiebreaker Pts. | |||||
| Place | Wins | Losses | Max. | Earned | ||
| Northern Iowa | 1 | 12 | 4 | 173 | 107 (-1) | |
| Creighton | 1 | 12 | 4 | 173 | 96 (+7) | |
| Illinois State | 3 | 11 | 5 | 179 | 90 (+10) | |
| Bradley | 4 | 9 | 7 | 183 | 59 (-2) | |
| Evansville | 5 | 7 | 9 | 191 | 42 (+5) | |
| Wichita State | 5 | 7 | 9 | 191 | 75 (+3) | |
| Drake | 5 | 7 | 9 | 191 | 70 (+18) | |
| Southern Ill. | 8 | 6 | 10 | 201 | 66 (+7) | |
| Indiana State | 8 | 6 | 10 | 201 | 40 (-1) | |
| Missouri State | 10 | 3 | 13 | 207 | 27 (+1) | |
The Drake win moves them into a tie with Wichita State and Evansville for fifth place in the Valley. But, the Bulldogs would still be in the play-in game right now as they would lose the mini-round robin tiebreaker between the three teams. Evansville is 3-1, Wichita State is 2-2 and Drake is 1-3 versus one another.
Now of course, if Drake falls out of a tie, then Wichita State will move ahead of Evansville, as the Shockers have a lot more of tiebreaker points.
For those of you who hope Bradley could somehow move up to third with two wins and two Illinois State losses, don't count on it. The Braves will only make up approximately 20 points on Illinois State with two wins, not enough to secure the third seed, even as the point values get shifted slightly in the last week.
On the positive side, Wichita State's loss tonight to Illinois State secures Bradley a spot in Friday's games, no matter what happens. In the unlikely event there is a 4-way tie for fourth place, Wichita State's two wins against the other three teams (Bradley, Drake, Evansville) would be the worst total and would push the Shockers into the play-in game.
At the top of the Valley, things could get extremely interesting, especially since Illinois State has games against both Northern Iowa and Creighton remaining. If the Redbirds could find a way to win both, they'd almost surely have the most tiebreaker points (and would hold the head-to-head advantage over Creighton) and take the top seed.
Of course, if Northern Iowa and Creighton tie, then the Panthers will finish first. As the two are in almost a dead heat in playoff points, you need to look at their remaining games. They both have a common opponent of Illinois State. As long as both have the same result, then those points are a wash. But, Creighton has lowly Missouri State left, while Northern Iowa still has a game against Evansville, which will have a much higher point value.
But, so much is still left to be determined. With the large amount of accumulated points that Indiana State has, the Sycamores could easily get out of the play-in game if they could pull off a road upset over Wichita State next week. Even SIU, who may be struggling more than any other Valley team (lost 5 of 6) could still move up, with games against Drake and Wichita State.
The wild and crazy Valley race continues next week after BracketBuster weekend...
1 comment:
There are actually three scenarios (out of the 1024 remaining), but there are three nonetheless, where Bradley would overtake Illinois State for the third seed. Also, there is one where BU and ISU tie for the third seed and a coinflip would occur.
The most likely of those scenarios involves two ISU-R losses and two BU wins. Also ISU-B wins both. SIU wins at Drake, and WSU wins at SIU. CU wins at MSU, and UNI wins vs. UE. This results in tiebreaker points for BU of 80, and ISU-R of 78.
Post a Comment