Last year I took the time to create a spreadsheet that would calculate the MVC tiebreaker procedures. Even to this day, it's a work in progress. The challenging part about the system is that depending on every game, the numbers change. So, the spreadsheet has to be set up to make that fluid.
So, here's the current tiebreaker breakdown as I have everything calculated:
Conference | Tiebreaker Pts. | |||||
Place | Wins | Losses | Max. | Earned | ||
Northern Iowa | 1 | 12 | 3 | 171 | 108 | |
Creighton | 2 | 11 | 4 | 175 | 96 | |
Illinois State | 3 | 10 | 5 | 179 | 80 | |
Bradley | 4 | 8 | 7 | 183 | 61 | |
Wichita State | 5 | 7 | 8 | 189 | 72 | |
Evansville | 5 | 7 | 8 | 189 | 37 | |
Drake | 7 | 6 | 9 | 197 | 52 | |
Southern Ill. | 7 | 6 | 9 | 197 | 41 | |
Indiana State | 9 | 5 | 10 | 203 | 59 | |
Missouri State | 10 | 3 | 12 | 207 | 26 |
(Wichita State would be the 5 seed right now, as it split with Evansville and has a sizable margin in tiebreaker points. Drake has won the only game between it and the Salukis and also is the leader in tiebreaker points. An SIU win over Drake could make it very interesting.)
Now, here's a team-by-team breakdown. Please note the semantics here. If the season ended today, Wichita State and Evansville would both be considered in a tie for fifth place. But all we're looking at now is the possibility of seeding for Arch Madness in St. Louis.
First let's look at who holds head-to-head tiebreakers:
Northern Iowa - Bradley, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Creighton - Bradley, Indiana State, Southern Illinois
Illinois State - Evansville, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Bradley - Indiana State, Wichita State
Wichita State - None
Evansville - Drake, Indiana State
Drake - None
Southern Illinois - Missouri State
Indiana State - Illinois State
Missouri State - None
Bradley's two wins over the Shockers will almost surely keep the Braves ahead, barring a very poor finish from the Bradley against some weak opponents. Evansville's sweep of Drake should prevent the Aces from being in the play-in game.
Some important scenarios obviously haven't been determined yet. Illinois State leads its series with Creighton 1-0. The Redbirds trail the series with Northern Iowa but Illinois State has its chance against UNI in Normal next week. Southern Illinois will likely have a lot to do with who is in the play-in game, as it still has games against Drake and Wichita State remaining.
Predicted finish as of 12/15 (assuming generally that home teams will win in close matchups):
1. Creighton 14-4 (W vs. Evansville, W @ Missouri State, W vs. Illinois State / Would likely lead in tiebreaker points over UNI if they win out)
2. Northern Iowa 14-4 (W vs. Drake, L @ Illinois State, W vs. Evansville)
3. Illinois State 12-6 (W vs. Wichita State, W v. Northern Iowa, L @ Creighton)
4. Bradley 10-8 (W vs. Missouri State, L @ Evansville, W vs. Drake)
5. Wichita State 9-9 (L @ Illinois State, W vs. Indiana State, W @ Southern Illinois - just have a feeling)
6. Evansville 8-10 (L @ Creighton, W vs. Bradley, L @ Northern Iowa)
7. Drake 7-11 (Will edge SIU due to "prospective" head-to-head sweep / L @ Northern Iowa, W vs. Southern Illinois, L @ Bradley)
8. Southern Illinois 7-11 (W vs. Indiana State, L @ Drake, L vs. Wichita State)
9. Indiana State 6-12 (L @ Southern Illinois, L @ Wichita State, W vs. Missouri State)
10. Missouri State 3-15 (L @ Bradley, L vs. Creighton, L @ Indiana State)
But as any Valley fan knows, things could change in a heartbeat. Illinois State could make a run for the title still.
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